I went to Thursday Night Football at Ralph Wilson Stadium this week so I didn’t get around to posting my picks. You can always find them on ESPN’s website at the Fantasy Games Pigskin Pick’em under IHaveJamesWoods user name (or just click the link.)
My favorites this week were the Cleveland Browns +8 against the Dallas Cowboys and in The Sunday Night Football game I like the the Pittsburgh Steelers who are a 3.5 point underdog at home on National Television. The line was adjusted after Big Ben’s injury.
I like the Steelers a lot tonight because I think the line changed way too much for one player. I know the Steelers have other injuries like Antonio Brown but they are still one of the best teams in the league. Plus the Ravens have just as many injuries and are not one of the best. I look for the to be a low scoring game with not much fantasy value and believe the Steelers should finish at least within three points.
I will update the rest of the results later in the week and find out where I stand for the season.
#1 – New York Jets +6.5 against the Seattle Seahawks. The Jets defense even without Revis is better than 6.5 points from Seattle. Plus Seattle struggles on offense to score points. I think the Jets can win this one easy. Teams going into their bye week are 3 – 17 against the spread. Seattle has a bye next week.
Fantasy Effect
Jets vs Seahawks should be very low in points scoring, so I don’t like anyone in this game unless your desperate. Marshawn Lynch could have a decent game, but that is about it.
#2 – I like the Detroit Lions -2.5 against the Minnesota Vikings here. The Lions are headed in the right direction and the Vikings are headed in the other direction. The Lions have developed a running game that they haven’t had in a while with Mikel Leshoure. The Vikings did great in the early part of the season, but have struggled in the passing game the past few weeks.
Fantasy Effect
I like both of the starting running backs in this game Peterson and Leshoure. I don’t like anyone involved in the Vikings pass offense this week. The guys you should be starting are on the Lions side of things. My (not so) bold prediction is that Calvin Johnson will score two touchdowns this week. He has struggled to get open in the end zone but shouldn’t have trouble against the Vikings corners. This is why I also like Matthew Stafford this week.
#3 – In this game I like the New Orleans Saints to cover at +2.5 against the Atlanta Falcons. I like Drew Brees anytime he is getting points due to fact that they could be down 9 in the 4th quarter with a couple minutes left and Brees will drive his team down the field and score almost every time. The Saints have probably the worst defense in the NFL, but this is their “Super Bowl” as people have been calling it and they are in the Superdome at home. I still think they have a chance at the playoffs but most people don’t agree with me, if they lose this week then it really hurts their chances.
Fantasy Effect
This is one of those start everyone games. It should be very high scoring, so if you have someone in this game then start them. Last week Mark Ingram starting to show potential and their new coach has been talking him up, so he could be an add for this week if you need someone at running back.
My first favorite this week is the prime time game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Atlanta Falcons. With all the hype on the Texans when they were undefeated, I managed to favorite the Green Bay Packers to end their streak. This week I am taking the Dallas Cowboys getting +4.5 against the undefeated Atlanta Falcons. I’ll even go as far to say I think Dallas covers the spread and wins this game. The Cowboys are another one of those teams like the Giants that play better on the road. All the pressure at home has something to do with this. The Cowboys play in the biggest stadium in the NFL and the Giants play in the biggest city in the NFL. The Cowboys always manage to disappoint their fan base and then come out and have them crawling back in games like this. The Falcons still have a weak running game, and that will remain that way until they replace Michael Turner. The Cowboys can take advantage of this and match points with the Falcons. Oh and this game is Vegas’s favorite pick of the weekend which is good.
Fantasy Effect
I don’t like Michael Turner in this game at all. I think the only thing Atlanta is going to be able to do in this game is pass. You can’t sit guys like Julio Jones or Roddy White ever. I don’t see this game being huge on offense though. If you have someone else you like this week I might consider benching Matt Ryan but don’t worry he has a great road ahead in terms of fantasy value because of their schedule.
On the other side of the ball I like guys like Tony Romo and even a little bit of Felix Jones. I can see Miles Austin and Jason Witten scoring some touchdowns in this one so I would start those guys if you have them.
Favorite #2
My other favorite is the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover at +3.5 against the New York Giants. Both of these teams are really good. They both have what I would call elite QBs. This game has a little bit of an X factor because of Hurricane Sandy the Steelers will be traveling on game day (No power in their hotel). I don’t see this hurting them a lot considering they are only traveling PA to NY. I think this and the Giants success contributes to the Steelers being the underdog here. The Giants are another one of those teams that like to disappoint their fan base during a good run like this. There are a lot of teams like this because of how tough it is to win in the NFL. I like the Steelers and Giants to both score a ton of points in this game. The Steelers could easily end up with more points than the Giants, but this one will be close no matter what.
Fantasy Effect
Start EVERYONE! Unless they are lined up at running back for the Steelers, you should start every player you have on either one of these teams. I think the Steelers running back is Redman this week, so if your desperate go ahead and start him.
My #1 Favorite this week already happened. You can follow my Thursday picks on twitter @IHaveJamesWoods or you can search IHaveJamesWoods on Pigskin Pick’em. I gave my favorites on there earlier in the week because I like how overrated the Minnesota Vikings are right now. I didn’t expect the points battle that happened on Thursday. There was a number of fantasy players in this game that made a huge impact this week. Doug Martin showed what he is capable of and won a bunch of games for people before Sunday even came around.
My #2 Favorite this week is the Carolina Panthers to cover the 7.5 points against the Chicago Bears. In my tweet earlier in the week I mentioned I took Panthers +9 this week. Obviously I like that number a lot more than the 7.5, but I’ll take either one. The Panthers have a good chance of losing this game against what has been one of the best teams in the league in the Bears. I think that the Bears have struggled more on offense than people have realized, because they have won their close games.
Fantasy Effect
I think Cam Newton will struggle against the Bears defense. The Bears are likely the best defense in the league and I will take them first in fantasy defense every year. They score more touchdowns than their offense in most games. The Bears always manage to get their fan base pumped, and then disappoint them the next week. I think this game will be a struggle for fantasy besides the Bears defense. I don’t see a ton of points being scored.
I love that the Atlanta Falcons are getting any points against the struggling Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are at home and desperate, so that is probably why they are the favorite this week, but the Falcons have proven to be one of the best in the league. This Falcons offense is going to have to figure out the run against the Eagles who usually struggle against the run. The Falcons passing game just needs to keep doing what they’ve been doing.
Fantasy Effect
I like this game to be big for fantasy football in week 8. I like guys like Michael Turner against the Eagles poor run defense. I think the Falcons should run the ball enough that Jaquizz Rodgers could even get a few carries. In the end though this game is going to come down to passing. If Michael Vick & Desean Jackson can show up this week, the Eagles might have a chance. You should be starting everyone relevant to this game this week. Guys like Julio Jones, Roddy White, Matt Ryan and Turner are must starts. I also like the guys on the other side of the ball. Michael Vick, Desean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin should be started this week. Obviously your always starting LeSean McCoy who could be the best running back in the league.
I’m going to pick four favorites because I just like this other game. The New York Giants are on a lot of lists as the best team in the NFL. Dallas Cowboys have a bunch of injuries and couldn’t get their running game off the ground last week, with Felix Jones in and out of the lineup. The Giants shouldn’t have a problem covering the -1.5 against the Cowboys how they have been playing. I say this all the time but the Giants are better on the road. This could be another shootout. I don’t love any of the running backs for fantasy, but I am starting Felix Jones because I have CJ Spiller on a bye.
My #1 favorite this week is the Washington Redskins covering at +6.5 against the New York Giants. The Redskins are on the road which is why they are picked as the dog in this one. But in reality the New York Giants play better on the road than they do at home. There is a lot of pressure playing in the big city. As you could have seen if you watched the New York Yankees play recently.
My #2 favorite is the Baltimore Ravens to cover +6.5 against the Houston Texans. The Texans are coming off a big disappointment against the Green Bay Packers where Rogers went wild, and I expect them to come out with the win, but the Ravens are too good to be given 6.5 points. I know they lost their leader in Ray Lewis and one of the best three corners in the league in Lardarius Webb, but the offense hasn’t changed. This is a powerful offense behind Ray Rice and Joe Flacco is coming out of his shell this year.
Fantasy Effect
The Skins have been great this year and I expect this to be a point scoring affair. I like guys like Robert Griffin, Santana Moss and Alfred Morris this week. Also, I expect Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks (Yes Nicks should be back and healthy finally), and Ahmad Bradshaw are guys I would start in all leagues this week. These teams are rivals and always manage to come to play against each other. Justin Tuck is a guy I really like in IDP leagues this week, I think the Giants defense is going to find a way to get to Robert Griffin for a few sacks.
My big favorite this week is the Green Bay Packers. I just can’t let this go. The best offensive team in the league is getting + 3.5 points. I would have taken the Packers straight up. The NFL is a tough league. The Texans are great, but every team in the NFL is going to lose at some point. I like this tough matchup for the Texans against the Packers to be Houston’s first loss. I expect a high scoring affair. Have all your fantasy players on these two teams in the game for sure.
My other favorite this week is the Detroit Lions. I like this team off a bye week against a Philadelphia Eagles team that in very inconsistent. They also turn the ball over more than any other team in the league. Vick is walking around this week with a football in hands at all times, with his teammates trying to get it from him (just like in the movies.) So maybe Vick can get over his turnover troubles, but Philly plays in close games all the time. If you can get 3 or more points in this one, the Lions should be able to cover that.
The last game this week that I am high on is New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts. I think Andrew Luck is great, and will eventually be an elite QB in the league. This week however they are coming off an emotional game against the Packers, dedicating their win to head coach Chuck Pagano in the hospital diagnosed with leukemia. An emotional win like that is draining. With all their injuries, I think the Jets are still a formidable team. I think the Jets should be able to cover the spread in this one pretty easy.
Fantasy Effect
Guys like Andre Johnson, WR for the Texans, hasn’t been worth the 1st or 2nd round pick you most likely made so far this year. Don’t consider benching him this week. The Packers don’t have the best defense. I expect a lot of points to be put up by both teams in this one. Even if the Packers are playing from behind, I like guys like Jordy Nelson and James Jones to have a big week. The Texans defense is great, but Aaron Rodgers is coming out of his slump and he is elite.
Baltimore Ravens(7-2)at
Chicago Bears(7-2)at
